Solar cell is in general made of silicon and non-silicon materials. Globally, solar cell is dominated by monocrystalline/polycrystalline silicon material with over 90% market share, while the rest goes to thin film materials such as amorphous silicon and CdTe and CIGS. In the coming 10 years, silicon solar cell’s market share is expected to drop to between 70-80%, while thin film solar cell market share will thus increase.
In
China, there are over 50 manufacturers of silicon solar cell. The total output was 1188MW by the end of
2007, 29% of the global output. On the
other hand, the thin film industry in China is still in its cradle and of
smaller scale. The key players are Shenzhen
Topray, Tianjin Jinneng, Shenzhen Trony, Jiangxi Ganneng, Shenzhen Sumoncle,
Harbin-Chronar, the largest capacity
being 5MW. Attracted by the market
potential, overseas companies have been entering China’s thin film industry. Recently,
US-based Argus invested up to $60 million for a 30MW thin film production line in
China. Hong Kong-based Xinao Group has plans to invest $200 million to build a
500 MW production line. In addition, Sharp, Q-Cells and DuPont have made
investments as well. One of the largest Chinese silicon solar cell manufacturers,
Suntech, is also moving into thin film manufacturing.
Although thin film solar cell has its advantages,
including shorter energy payback time of 9 months, environmental friendly,
cheaper raw material, suitable for large scale production and function well
even in a less sunny condition, it requires at least 20 times more investment
to launch a thin film production line than a silicon production line. Without Chinese
government’s support in place the domestic market will not be able to reach a
scale that is attractive to thin film manufacturers. Currently, most of the thin film
manufacturers in China look to overseas market for their products.
In fact, China’s domestic market has tremendous potential. Use the rural area in China as an example. There are approximately 28,000 villages in China, representing 7 million households and 30 million population that have not yet had access to electricity. 60% of the areas that have access experience severe electricity shortage. Most of these areas without power are rich in solar energy. They offer a huge market potential for photovoltaic energy production. As soon as the Chinese government comes up with a good plan of subsidy and support policy, the domestic market will develop and the production volume of thin film solar cell will scale up.
